Open Bar: Place Your Bets

After learning that Angry Grammarian's wedding would include a 5-hour open bar for our very Irish family, the following exchange occured:

Dirty Old Town said:

Five hours. Tom Thornton Jr. Anne Napolitano. Butch Giardi. Timo. Jane Giardi. Myself. Jack Napolitano. Tommy.

Oh dear God.

Please tell me that you pay by the hour and not the drink. Please.

What's the opening line for the over/under for a five hour open bar for the aforesaid?

Tom Jr. - 9.5
Anne - 9.0
Butch - 8.0
Timo - 12.0
Jane - 5.5
Me - 10.0
Jack - off
Tommy 9.5

From Behind the Bar said:

Pat you may want to figure in , pre-game, post-game, and a little thing called a wagon run....

Dirty Old Town said:

Good point. To be clear, these over/unders are for the five hour open bar only. I know everyone probably thinks: of course I can have 8 drinks in a five-hour period! But will you, at this particular time and place? I have taken into account everyone's penchant for pre-game activities and adjusted accordingly. If you think one number is way off, put your money where your mouth is!

For Entertainment Purposes Only.

After no action, Angry Grammy said:

Apparently we have some reluctant betters in the casino, so allow me to begin the wagering...

Pat's point is well taken, but I see on circumstances which would prevent young Tim from topping 12 drinks, so I'll put five on the over.

On the other hand, I think that her duties as mother of the groom - coupled with frequent trips out to the patio to smoke a cig - will prevent Anne Nap from getting to 9.

She will take her role seriously and maintain decorum.

I'll take five on the under. I'm still waiting on some inside info before I place any other bets, but I'll open with these two...

Rizsan said:

Wow!

What well thought out wagering!

It seems like Joe knows what he's doing, so I'd like $5 on the mother of the groom bet with Joe.

I am not following you with the Tim wager, Joe.

Care to elaborate?

From Behind the Bar offered up his insight and commentary:

Following Joe's lead; here are Big T's locks:

Tom Jr. - 9.5
5 on the under- while 5 hours is a long time, I think the Old man will want to stay awake for night fall and even a peak inside the LL.(Linebacker Lounge)

Anne - 9.0
5 on the under- I like Joe's theory, she'll have a lot of motherly things to do plus the constant stress, even for Aunty, will hinder her from putting up big numbers. Go big on the under, however if her duties finish early, be careful, she then has all the reason to enter Crusherville!

Butch - 8.0
5 on the under- double up here if there is Jim B. involved, I say if you can a get a line on anything above a 7.0 jump on it and bet the farm! - This is my pick of the week.

Timo - 12.0
5 on the under-while this is a tough call, I think there will be some pacing going on here, as Timmba will postpone heavy intake until the Linebacker L. (The line for the Linebacker L is 5.0 by the way.)

Jane - 5.5
5 on the over-this one won't be decided until late and here's why: if Butch make as early departure as suggested above, the mice will play while the cat is away.

Look for Aunty to make a big push late when there is no supervision, please see previous performances at George's.

Pat - 10.0
5 on the under- again not wanting to be "that guy" and also saving himself for Linebacker L, Pat goes slow and steady, I'll say a healthy 8.0-8.5

Jack - off
Only thing worth touching here is total time at reception, if you can get a line of 4hours take the under, especially if tie coverage is lacking.

If a late line appears concerning total units consumed, RUN. This is a true wild card, nobody with any intelligence would touch this one!

Tommy 9.5
Obviously, this one is offline for me, I do not want to be thought of as a Pete Rose, but purely for fun here goes; 5 on the under-similar strategy applies here, hold off for the late-late night activities whatever they may be...

Please note: All bets are off if shots are brought into the fray.

Dirty Old Town said:

Expert analysis as always, Tom. You seem to be favoring unders for the most part, are you fearful of the neutral site affecting perfomances? We've heard about the "family genes" for years now, and some say this legend has grown so big that the lines are being inflated. Care to comment?

I can tell you that we've seen some heavy early action on the over for Tom Jr. -there's talk of the line moving to 10.0 in some books. Talk a little bit about the likelihood that Tom Jr. has "Peter Edward Rose" tendencies. Do you think it matters if his defense is that he always bet on himself to win?